Paid research · 2026
How AI contracts are won and lost at renewal
Renewal is where an AI company finds out whether its customer still sees the value. We interviewed 29 people at US companies selling and buying AI services, on deals above $20K a year, to understand the friction of renewing.
The pressures aren't the ones SaaS prepared us for. Customers can pitch building it themselves, priorities shift mid-contract, and the renewal case often starts after the budget is already set.
Each finding comes with our view on what to do about it.
What you'll learn
- Why cheap building has become a bargaining chip at renewal
- How to answer a build pitch before the customer makes it
- Why half the AI companies we spoke with walked into a renewal out of sync
- The three causes behind those disconnects
- Why logins and token counts don't make a renewal case
- When to start the case so it lands before the budget is set
Five findings
- 01
Champions can't defend a bill that keeps moving
- 02
Everyone sees usage. Nobody sees what it delivered
- 03
Cheap building has become a bargaining chip
- 04
Customers pivot faster than account teams can follow
- 05
Big claims get discounted. Concrete numbers win
About the study. We commissioned an independent study of 29 moderated, one-hour interviews between August and October 2026: 17 customers who decide or strongly influence AI renewals, and 12 people who own renewals at AI companies, all in the US. Companies range from 11 to 1,000+ employees across IT service management, customer service, sales and HR.
Download the report